Post your final predictions for Tuesday's election. You can post either the overall result, i.e. Dems pick up 6, no change in control, etc., or specific races. Please, don't give reasons; this is just to see who calls it right and who doesn't. (I think that there will be few, if any, late surprises, so predicting two days before should be relatively safe.) ****************************************************** 11-05-06, 11:07 AM DorianGreyed I think this is just too close to call a winner. If I must make a prediction, I think it's going to be 51/49, you pick. Remember, a 50/50 split means the power stays with the Republicans, since, by law, the Vice President is the President of the Senate and votes in case of any ties.
11-05-06, 11:43 AM Lighteningrodd I am not afraid to stick my neck out and make a wild & crazy prediction. I think the Republicans will actually GAIN a seat or two in BOTH houses of Congress.
Granted this goes against conventional wisdom and what the polls say. So be it. Big Grin
11-05-06, 11:58 AM juanruiz A lot has to do with voter turnout, of course. Given a larger number of voters than average, I'd say Dems pick up 2 in the Senate and 15 in the House.
11-05-06, 12:51 PM Scotty Although it is too close to call, I predict the Republicans will hold on to the Senate with a narrow margin.
11-05-06, 02:00 PM hippolips Hi dg:
I think Dems will also take the Senate and pick up 7 seats.
hippolips
11-05-06, 02:36 PM DorianGreyed If the Dems pick up more than 30 seats in the House, I think they will score big in the Senate as well, possibly keeping the two of their seats now considered in contention, and picking up the seven Republican seats now in contention.
Any predictions on how many African-Americans will end up in the Senate?
11-06-06, 10:29 AM Koz I think that the Republicans will gain 2-3 seats in the House, and the Senate will remain unchanged.
11-06-06, 11:21 PM sid1114 I'm not making any prediction but this: if the republicans were actually to gain seats (or not lose the house, for that matter) I'm going to be depressed to the point of extinction, because it'll mean that my view of things is so out of touch with the country that I don't fit at all. If there aren't enough republicans who can see how badly bush has damaged the US to be willing to cede control for awhile in the name of protecting what the US theoretically stands for and protecting their REPUBLICAN values, then there's no hope. I see bush as having set us on a path to ruin, quite literally. If the election doesn't reflect that, then either I'm so wrong as to have no right to an opinion, or most people don't give a darn. Either way, I'd find it distressing to the core. I don't claim that democrats have a corner on correctness market, or the republicans are always wrong: just that the particular republicans now in control are dangerous in the extreme, and have nothing to do with what any American, of any party, ought to believe.
11-06-06, 11:36 PM RoverRoad The majority of the polls show that the Democrats are ahead in most of the elections. The only time people don't believe in polls is when they disagree with them. But, they are generally pretty accurate when they all show about the same results.
I think the Democrats are going to take back the house and the senate, we're going to impeach Bush and take our county back.
Vote on Tuesday, It's a matter of life and death!
11-07-06, 12:05 AM DorianGreyed I was really hoping for just predictions. Oh, well, it's almost over.
11-07-06, 12:52 AM DorianGreyed Dewine in Ohio and Santorum in Pennsylvania will both lose, big time. Chafee in Rhode Island may just pull it out, but it will be very close; I think he will just barely lose. Burns in Montana will lose, but, again, it will be close. Allen in Virginia is still a toss-up, but he will probably lose. Democrat McCaskill will win in Misouri, as will Menedez in New Jersey. Corker wins in Tenessee. Republican Steele will win in Maryland. Kyle should win in Arizona.
It appears that I have the Dems taking the Senate when I look at the individual races, but I think the overall picture is that it will be a tie or a slight edge for the Republicans. As I said before, however, a tie keeps the Republicans in control. If, however, the Dems do really well in the House, a Senate win will accompany come with that win. Lieberman's win in Connecticut is one for the Dems, even though he is running as an Independent. However, he supports bush in bush's war. Chafee, in RI, voted against the war, and so will not vote with bush on that issue, so he negates Lieberman there. Chafee also has other Democratic positions.
11-07-06, 01:19 AM DorianGreyed Oh, yeah, one more prediction. No one in Florida will bother to count Katherine Harris' votes. Since she will be out of a job in January, I predict she will be hired by Ringling Brothers.
11-07-06, 02:08 AM RoverRoad I eMailed over 600 people toinight to remind them to vote Smile Hopefully most of them were Dems...
11-07-06, 06:39 AM juanruiz
quote: Originally posted by RoverRoad: I eMailed over 600 people toinight to remind them to vote Smile Hopefully most of them were Dems...
With all due respect, I am not a big fan of party line voting. If the candidate is good, I vote on that basis. I'll be voting for both Reps and Dems today.
11-07-06, 07:03 AM RoverRoad "With all due respect for what?" With all of the illegal activity exposed on the Republican party, and with all of the lies exposed, people resigning in shame and going to jail, You're still willing to say there's some good left in the Republican party... With all do respect for the criminals?
Heck, vote Libertarian, they are closer to Republican core philosophy than Republican... Your only reason to vote Republican these days is because your church told you that you would burn in hell if you don't...
Democrats are actually better for business bottom dollar these days so the Republicans can't use the business angle anymore.
Sounds like you'll only be voting for half of your values today.
This message has been edited. Last edited by: RoverRoad, 11-07-06 06:29 AM
11-07-06, 08:13 AM juanruiz
quote: With all of the illegal activity exposed on the Republican party, and with all of the lies exposed, people resigning in shame and going to jail, You're still willing to say there's some good left in the Republican party... With all do respect for the criminals?
Let's arrest all the Roman Catholic priests for child abuse then. And all the Arabs in America for terrorism. And all the university students for binge drinking and driving.
11-07-06, 08:19 AM RoverRoad
quote: Let's arrest all the Roman Catholic priests for child abuse then. And all the Arabs in America for terrorism. And all the university students for binge drinking and driving.
The BIG difference is, those people aren't running the country right now... The Republicans are...
11-07-06, 08:23 AM juanruiz It's your method that's fallacious: tarring everybody with one brush whether they belong to a political party, a church, or a race, is nothing but an ad hominem.
11-07-06, 08:32 AM RoverRoad When the one votes for a party that is the cause of most of our problems today, what should I think of the one? He/She is doing harm to my family with that vote... I don't care about my self, I ignore laws that I don't agree with anyway. And I'm sure there are many others here that do so as well.
11-07-06, 08:38 AM sid1114 JR: in theory I agree with you about party line votes. But if ever there were a time for it, it's now. My reasoning is this: (we're talking national elections, here -- not governors, etc). Congress currently is being run by a bunch of people who willfully suppress opposition, who ignore or redact facts, who have abdicated oversight, who want hard-right ideologues as judges, who think foreign aid ought to depend on whether a country teaches birth control, who think a free press is the enemy of our country, who without hesitation are driving up debt to a point of no return yet who smear anyone who brings it up. I could go on, but as I get depressed I seem to have more and more trouble typing. So to send a republican to congress is to enable this form of despotic governing. It's so damaging to the country that it seems (unless you like what you see in congress as currently constituted [to use an apparently meaningless word]) that at this time in our history, electing people specifically because they are not republicans is more than justified: it's essential. Maybe later, if the theocrats get the message and go back into their caves, you can once again vote for specific individuals. That's my argument.
11-07-06, 08:43 AM RoverRoad Well said Sid!!
11-07-06, 08:44 AM juanruiz Look, I'm no fan of Republicans, but as I've said elsewhere, both parties are so utterly hopeless, the system is so far gone, as to be irredeemable. It's like a barrel of rotten green and red apples, you choose those which are still good, despite the color.
11-07-06, 08:49 AM RoverRoad juanruiz, I don't know much about you, so forgive me when I ask what it is about the Democratic party that you dislike? I'm already with you on the Republican party so I don't need clarification there Smile
11-07-06, 08:53 AM juanruiz I don't believe I ever said I disliked the Democratic Party. I DID say above I would vote for both Democrats and Republicans this election, the majority of whom are for state and local offices.
11-07-06, 09:07 AM RoverRoad
quote: both parties are so utterly hopeless
Than let me rephrase it, What is it that makes you think that the Democratic party is hopeless? Because I sure see them as the best alternative to the current corruption in our government.
11-07-06, 09:11 AM frankvan While I generally agree that one should not tar everyone with the same brush, and I have voted for the republican candidate when he was obviously superior, in the present instance I think I go along with sid. We can not afford to have all branches of government under the control of the republicans, 'power corrupts"so, since we may not see the dems take control of the senate, it behooves us to throw out any republican up for reelection in congress. Vote for the best man/woman in any party for mayor, dogcatcher, etc. but throw out all disposable republicans in congress - this time!
11-07-06, 09:20 AM juanruiz
quote: What is it that makes you think that the Democratic party is hopeless?
Because what has become central to the system in terms of importance are the parties, not the country. Or at least that is impression communicated. The notion that politicians are somehow benign altruists, who only desire is to serve, is inane. But I'm an equal opportunity curmudgeon; I dislike Cheney and Bush as much as I dislike Ms. Clinton and Teddy Kennedy.
11-07-06, 09:26 AM RoverRoad You just dislike government, period. And I'm the one coming off as extreme. I guess it's more acceptable to distrust both parties than just one. Big Grin
11-07-06, 11:08 AM sid1114 As usual in all AP fora, I mostly agree with JR. For example, I found Hillary's put-down of Kerry's screwup dispicable (and I still cringe when I think of Kerry's tone-deafness.) Teddy, well, I think at least he's consistent. So I don't think the national democrats are particularly likely to be able to set aside party and personal politics to seek solutions regardless of source. But I actually do believe that they're more likely to be bipartisan for now than are the republicans, if for no other reason than that they'll calculate they need to appear able actually to govern if they are to keep their seats. So I still hew to my belief that it's absolutely critical to the future of the country to elect democrats and/or to de-elect republicans until such time as congress returns to the days of yore, when r's and d's were collegial and worked together. Hey look, it's a pig with wings. Hope he doesn't poop on my as he flies over.
11-07-06, 12:08 PM DorianGreyed "I guess it's more acceptable to distrust both parties than just one."
It's certainly less biased. Bill, neither party holds the copyright on either honesty or dishonesty. While I almost always vote for Democrats, I have never voted a straight or even a complete ticket. Right now, I agree with Sid's assessment.
"... I ignore laws that I don't agree with anyway."
This makes you sound more like bush or Cheney than anyone else.
11-07-06, 12:17 PM FredPuli
quote: Originally posted by DorianGreyed:
"... I ignore laws that I don't agree with anyway."
This makes you sound more like bush or Cheney than anyone else.
Or like suffragettes and those who were disobedient in the cause of civil rights and Tom Paine......and the whole of the French nation Big Grin
11-07-06, 01:41 PM DorianGreyed In the case of Paine, the Suffragettes, and the civil rights workers, legal methods were tried at first to change the laws. (I refuse to try to explain anything done by the French. Big Grin) While Bill didn't say anything about attempting to change any laws he disagreed with, I feel it a safe assumption that he made no real attempts to legally change the laws.
11-07-06, 02:06 PM hippolips Hi dg:
The most surprising thing about your poll is this:
Answer Pool boasts a list of 3837 viewers,yet only a handful have even bothered to express an opinion.
While the handful have expessed many opinions,the vast majority have chosen to ignore your polls on both the Senate and House races.
Think this may be an omen of actual voter turnout today???
Have we become a nation , so enamored with ourselves and our celebrities, that we just don't give a damn what's happening to our country and our world ???
hippolips 11-07-06, 02:12 PM juanruiz
quote: Answer Pool boasts a list of 3837 viewers,yet only a handful have even bothered to express an opinion.
This is more reflective of day to day participation on AP. A lot of members, a few posters. But it could be analogous in a way to the electorate.
11-07-06, 03:51 PM DorianGreyed Just a small part of the active membership actually posts in political threads, (it has been this way since the beginning), and even fewer have been willing to take positions, so I don't see a low participation in this thread as indicative of anything other than life on a question board. Only seven people have offered any type of prediction. Among the (relatively) regular political posters who haven't are
While I certainly understand those living in another country not making any predictions, the fact remains that they didn't. However, taking in account that they may not have felt it their place to make predictions just lowers the number of people likely to respond with a prediction.
By the numbers -
7 made predictions
15 are somewhat regular posters in political threads
3 of the regular posters are not eligible to vote, leaving 12 of the regular posters actually able to vote
58% of the regular posters who are able to vote made predictions --- AP's participation seems to be a bit higher or the same as the actual election's participation.
11-07-06, 05:38 PM sid1114 OK, OK. Jeez, DG, can't a guy have a little peace and quiet around here? Senate: 50/50. House, dem majority by about 5.
11-07-06, 06:00 PM DorianGreyed Big Grin
11-08-06, 09:55 AM VelvetVoice Well, haven't followed this stuff and have come to find out who's right. I suspect that we are all losers, as I agree with JR that all politicians are hopeless. There are several threads I have not participated in since they are so depressing, no reason to fall further into the pit.
Rell won the gubernatorial office handily. She is now the reigning Teflon politician. I still don't understand how Roland and half of his cronies went to jail (along with two mayors in the state) and she is totally unscathed by the corruption. "I worked with my friend John Rowland for years, and I had no idea at all of this stuff going on."
Still waiting to hear about results of our local reps, Republican Dan McCann vs Democrat Mike Lawlor. Must be very close. With the exceptions of McCann and Lieberman, I voted Democrat, which probably didn't amount to much anyway.
11-08-06, 12:50 PM RoverRoad
quote: Originally posted by VelvetVoice: I suspect that we are all losers
Not me, I'm on the winning side for the first time since 96 and it feels great. Big Grin
11-08-06, 01:18 PM RoverRoad Democrats just got the 50th Senate seat! All we need now is Virginia where the Democrat is ahead by 8000 votes. It looks good!
This message has been edited. Last edited by: DorianGreyed,
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