I heard that in building the levees in New Orleans, the engineers, who were outside contractors, conducted a risk analysis which determined the unlikelihood of a hurricane above category 3 to be 99.9% and its likelihood to be .5% (actual figures stated, not my mistake). Katrina was category 4. I also heard that had there not been given an evacuation call, the loss of life would have been greater, although those without means of evacuation were seemingly not considered. How do you feel about reliance on risk analysis, which likely placed getting the engineers' bid for the job accepted above considerations of loss of life and livelihood of those who would be adversely affected immediately and long term? Of course, correct me if you heard differently.

I heard differently.

In fact I hear 5 years ago that New Orleans was a death trap just waiting for the Perfect Storm, and with the increased hurricanes of the past few years analysts and engineers were growing more concerned of the very real threat to New Orleans of a +3 Cat storm.

In fact just recently a movie came out on that "Oil Storm". The movie was done in documentary style, not surrounding New Orleans specifically, but the oil crises that would emerge if that area was hit by a hurricane. In the movie it touched on the likely event of New Orleans being flooded.

Think that was a "happy accident" of prediction? Nope - For years the people who study these things, (economics, and scientists, blah) have been ringing the alarm bells saying that that area is ripe for a 100 year storm. They knew that the area had been hit by powerful storms on a "regular" basis of decades and knew that the cycle was up for the next one.

Come on, even I knew it was coming I even predicted it in 2003-2004 as a possibility – not because I’m some supernatural being with inhuman perception, but based on hard facts on the way things are, the way trends for storms are going and on a lot of work done by the Scientists who have predicted that New Orleans was ripe for another cat4+ hurricane.

What was downplayed was the Governments in ability to keep our troops at home and spend money on protecting our citizens from the issues that face them yearly. The Bush Administration wanted to funnel money from the Corps of Engineers (who also have lost funding for other projects up and down the length of the Mississippi and elsewhere and we will see the direct impact of that choice) to fund his personal war with Iraq.

It’s not over, not in a long shot. Bush and his Gang have pilfered the coffers on many projects and we the People are going to suffer the consequences. Saddam was never a direct threat to us, but the Bush Administration’s policies and spending is.

Yes. The risk to the city of New Orleans has been known for a long time. When the French founded the city, engineers criticised the location.

Alan Moore

"99.9% and its likelihood to be .5% (actual figures stated, not my mistake)."

The numbers they gave should have been 99.5% and 0.5%. Also, they should have stated that that is the likelyhood of it occuring in any single year. This is what is known as a 200-year event, meaning that it happens (on average) once every 200 years.

If my calculations are right (my probability is rusty) the following arethe chances of it occuring in any given time period of the size listed:

1 year -> 0.5%
5 years -> 2.5%
10 years -> 5%
25 years -> 12%
50 years -> 22%
100 years -> 39%
150 years -> 53%
200 years -> 63%
250 years -> 71%
300 years -> 78%

methos: What you contributed is scary and emotionally distressing when taking into account the broader picture. I was going to post this thing in "Engineering" but thought of it as deserving more broad discussion, especially to get it more accurate: I am glad that you found it here.

David: I refer folks to your broader discussion on the politics of the matter in "Emotional Health." I hope that what you added there about NY being in for it does not come to pass, but I do think that NY is in for "something" (which I hope is my success of my latest lawsuit against it, which success is unlikely but, then, so was the hurricane).