What determines how an approval rating is calculated? For example...if someone says that Bush has such a high approval rating, that he will remain in office for another term, how is this concluded? Is there some kind of survey with the common people, or is this just what the big wheelers decide? I've always wondered this, but I'm just about tired of hearing about Bush's high approval ratings. There's an old saying that...What goes up, must come down.
I hope I'm asking this in the right place.
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05-27-03, 04:42 PM
methos
What exactly happens is a little different depending on who does it. Usually, some group (a number of newspapers and/or TV stations do this, the president's office does this, and various other groups do this) will basically make a lot of phone calls asking people what they think of the president.

The most basic just ask "do you approve of how the president is doing his job?" They count up the number that say yes, the number that say no, and the number that don't say they don't know. If they make enough phone calls they will get opinions reflecting the opinions of the entire country.

Most polls will ask additional question, like "what do you think of his foreign policy?" or "what do you think of his tax plan?"

Good polsters will also make additional efforts to make sure that the opinion they collect represent the country accurately. Say that 50% of the country lives in cities. They would make sure that 50% of the people that they called live in cities.

05-27-03, 05:32 PM
honilov
Methos, polls like this could be mis-leading, since the scales are tipped, according to who handle the polls. I'm still waiting on my call. Big Grin The only 'poll' calls I've ever gotten were during presidental elections. I guess once a president is in/not elected, they mostly deal with big crooks. There is something fishy about it, like either trying to sway people toward Bush, or trying to make some people give up, and say what's the use.

I really appreciate your answer, because now I get a clearer picture of what's going on.

Am I being confusing, or do understand what I'm trying to say?

05-27-03, 05:52 PM
methos
The scales certainly could be tipped if the organization wanted to tip them. One thing that would prevent that is that there are a number of organizations conducting polls with similar questions. If one poll started getting different numbers than the rest, it would be obvious that something fishy was going on.

05-28-03, 06:51 AM
moe257
Honilov, you will also see polls posted on news web sites. Netscape has a poll posted daily on different topics.
I think it's important to rate based on people willing to take the time to respond. You have to realize that if someone approves or disapproves, but isn't willing to take the time to voice an opinion, it wouldn't matter very much. Many people who aren't willing to take time out for an opinion, usually won't take time out to vote.

05-28-03, 07:18 AM
Koz
Quinnipiac University polls for just about anything you can think of. Roll Eyes

They are in Connecticut and concentrate on the New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania areas. National trends and politics are also covered. They claim to be quite accurate.

05-28-03, 08:32 AM
methos
I personally don't put much stock in those web site polls because they limit their respondents to those who both visit the web site and like to take polls. I would bet that the people visiting Fox have different opinions than the people visiting NBC.

Also, I have little interest in taking internet polls, but I do vote. I know people who don't take the time to vote, but will gladly take the second or two to click an internet poll. That's just anecdotal evidence, of course, but I don't think that the internet poll taking group and voting group are necessarily the same.

Many phone-based polls will also sort their results into likely voters and those unlikely to vote. I'm not sure how they do this. They may just ask "are you likely to vote?"

05-28-03, 09:00 AM
Koz
methos, Quinnipiac University polls are not internet based. They gather their information via telephone and face to face. I am not a big fan of polls either.

05-28-03, 09:01 AM
moe257
I have to agree with you methos. I guess a lot of people will take the time to click their mouse, but not leave the house to vote. I also doubt many people would admit they don't vote after offering their opinions in a poll. I always wondered what it would be like to have a true domocracy and vote on everything. Like should we go to war Yes or No.

I wonder how many people would take the time and study the facts well enough to make an informed decision. I admit that many of my opinions are based on emotion, that would make it a whole different playing field.

05-28-03, 09:26 AM
methos
Koz - I was referring to Moe's comments, not yours, sorry if I wasn't clear.

Moe - I think that would be interesting, but little (less) would actually get done. Few isssues are simply yes or no. A majority of congress wanted some kind of tax cut, but it was still an issue of debate as to how much and what kind of taxes should be cut, what spending should be decreased, what taxes should be raised, how long each individual aspect of the plan should last, and how quickly different aspects got phased in. I don't think a true democracy could handle the scale of that problem.

05-28-03, 02:56 PM
honilov
Thanks everyone. I didn't even realize that there were internet polls.

05-28-03, 03:52 PM
moe257
[QUOTE]Originally posted by methos5000:
Moe - I think that would be interesting, but little (less) would actually get done.QUOTE]

I'm not sure it's possible to do less than the government does at times. Roll Eyes At least we would have to pay ourselves large salaries for accomplishing nothing. Big Grin Think of all the things we could do with all that extra money.

06-06-03, 08:53 PM
Curt in Visalia, CA
It's amazing, but true, but professional pollsters like Gallup can take a random sampling of about 2,000 voters and come up with a very accurate assessment of how people across America are going to vote or how they rate a politician. The accuracy of such polls ranges between plus or minus 3 to 4 percent.

When the polls are done professionally and without bias, they can be believed -- even if you disagree with the results.

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