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Diamond
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What is indirect evidence?

How is indirect evidence deemed conclusive or, at least, valuable?

(These questions were inspired by Professor in a thread in "Agnosticism.")
 
Posts: 4345 | Location: U.S.A. | Registered: 06-08-02Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Diamond
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Indirect evidence is evidence that doesn't prove a fact - you need to infer something to make use of it. Standing alone, it mostly suggests a direction to look. However, it can corroborate direct evidence or enough indirect evidence combined can essentially exclude all other options.

If you have been indoors all day and come outside to puddles, drops all over your car, etc., that is only indirect evidence that it rained. If you add that it was forecast to rain, that there were thunderclouds in the sky before you went indoors, and that there are no sprinklers nearby, the indirect evidence becomes pretty convincing (the inspiration for this example came from some website somewhere, but I've forgotten it). Direct evidence would be if you actually saw it rain - no inference would be necessary.
 
Posts: 5891 | Location: Indiana | Registered: 06-13-02Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Platinum
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The AP discussion to which tsaeb refers is here, on the subject of biological evolution, which began with Paul quoting an assertion by a political columnist that evolution must be accepted on faith because it occurs too slowly to be observed. I noted that there is abundant scientific evidence to support it, but that most of this evidence is, of necessity, "indirect" rather than "direct."

Now, this dichotomy between direct and indirect is somewhat arbitrary and artificial. In other words, "directness" of evidence is a fuzzy concept that would seem to defy classification. Some examples might help.

If you and I go to a pistol range and you see me shoot at a tin can, you will observe that I aim the gun at the can, pull the trigger, you hear a bang, and (if I'm a good shot) see the can fly off its perch at just the same moment. Most of us would hypothesize that the can was knocked off by a bullet from the gun. But did you actually see the bullet fly through the air? Of course not. Is that direct or indirect evidence?

Could the can have been rigged with a hidden string, pulled at just the same moment that I fired a blank from the gun? This would be an elaborate hoax, but still a credible hypothesis. Suppose later examination reveals bullet holes in the can not previously there, in support of the original hypothesis of the flying bullet. Is that direct or indirect evidence? We judge the observations on their merits, and whether we classify them as direct or indirect is beside the point.

"Seeing is believing," many would say. An extremist philosophy might hold that reality can only be trusted to man's five senses (and his ability to reason logically, of course). The ancients had little else to go on. Once the telescope was invented, were Galileo's observations of heavenly bodies valid extensions of the visual sense, or were they in some sense more artificial and less convincing? Were those observations of Saturn's rings direct or indirect? You see how slippery the concept is when you try to pin it down.

So now we have our mass spectrometers, gas chromatographs, atomic clocks, etc. We can find a fossil embedded in a sedimentary rock, measure various radioactive decay products in those rocks, measure very similar rocks (found in the same position within the familiar column of geologic strata) from all over the world, and make inferences about when those rocks were originally laid down. This in turn allows us to make inferences about when the creature whose fossilized remains we hold must actually have lived. Direct or indirect?

We can examine the light from a star by passing it through a spectroscope. We can match its spectral lines with those produced by particular atoms at particular energies in a lab here on earth, and find that they match perfectly (much as the rifling marks on bullets can be matched to others fired from the same gun in a ballistics lab), except that the spectra are red-shifted a measurable amount. We understand the Doppler effect, and can infer that the star must be moving away from us at a speed that we calculate from the red shift. Direct or indirect?

We can't see atoms or molecules with our naked eyes. We can't see them in a microscope, either. We can't even see them with an electron microscope at a magnification of over one million. Yet there is abundant evidence that matter is composed of atoms and molecules, going back many centuries. Direct or indirect?

The most "indirect" of scientific evidence always rests on earlier observations, which in turn rest on even earlier ones, forming a long chain of evidence that ultimately stretches back to the most basic, elementary, and "direct" evidence that was established decades or centuries ago. And these are long and thick chains indeed. That's how can we know things like the age of the universe, or what the earth looked like half a billion years ago, or that whales evolved from land creatures, or how many water molecules are in that bottle of Evian. Scientific knowledge is in a sense indistinguishable from the history of science.

Young children are taught science as rote facts, and we ask them to accept these facts as true, just as they accept arithmetic, history, geography, and spelling. At a later stage of education, however, no knowledge of science is complete until the student learns not just what we know, but how we came to know it. This is absolutely essential for establishing the reality of science, as well as for developing critical thinking skills to navigate our complex world of facts, guesses, myths, urban legends, hoaxes, and delusions.

And this is what is most urgently lacking in practically all of science education: not just what we know but how we know it.

My fingers are tired of typing. Smile Now let's hear from others.
 
Posts: 1991 | Location: U.S. | Registered: 06-03-02Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
Diamond
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quote:
Originally posted by Professor:

Now, this dichotomy between direct and indirect is somewhat arbitrary and artificial. In other words, "directness" of evidence is a fuzzy concept that would seem to defy classification. Some examples might help.

If you and I go to a pistol range and you see me shoot at a tin can, you will observe that I aim the gun at the can, pull the trigger, you hear a bang, and (if I'm a good shot) see the can fly off its perch at just the same moment. Most of us would hypothesize that the can was knocked off by a bullet from the gun. But did you actually see the bullet fly through the air? Of course not. Is that direct or indirect evidence?



Yes Professor.Science has a history of such obvious inferences being not correct. And it is why we direct juries to find the accused guilty only if they are " satisfied beyond a reasonable doubt" of guilt. No standard of mathematical proof is needed.In the instant case they would usually deduce that the gun firing and the can falling were cause and effect,a bullet from it striking the can, and that any other hypothesis was to be rejected as unreasonable doubt in the absence of any other proposal or evidence.

Which isn't to say that jurors don't sometimes embark on wild flights of speculation,as evidenced by the questions they ask.They sometimes appear to be grasping out for the wildest hypothesis or one that cannot even be guessed. [Not always:In a rape case " How old is the horse ?" comes to mind . The accused was said to have pulled a woman from a horse and attacked her but he claimed she'd gone wiilingly and consented. So the age of the horse was relevant .A horse that was old but ran off would have been startled by the actions; a true youngster that stayed unmoving evidently was not ].

It is also true that the classic lines of defence apply this dichotomy in practice by helping the evidence along a little.Not everything is quite what you see.The best lines are always the ones that admit all the facts spoken to but put some truly inventive interpretation, some gloss , some 'spin', on them.So the man found by police when under a bed in the burgled house always has an easy explanation viz. that he had seen a burglar inside and had rushed in to detain him but the burglar had got away. Hearing the police coming, and fearful that he would be suspected, he hid under the bed.....[Believe me I've seen this run with success more than once.Note that it covers the the alarm going, the arrival of the police within seconds and even the accused having some of the valuables " Which I picked up as the man fled" Big Grin ]

Now, you see, if only they'd had a London jury for Galileo.......
 
Posts: 8354 | Location: Newmarket, UK/ Antibes, S.France | Registered: 07-14-02Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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