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It is the Fed that creates, not cures, inflation. The surest way to stop it is to stop the printing presses—something that a government with massive debt and the desire to sustain a boom is not likely to do.
 
Posts: 559 | Location: Northern Arizona | Registered: 06-03-02Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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'Monetarism reached the peak of its popularity during the 1970s. In the 80s, however, it suffered a sudden reversal of fortune, and today economists generally agree that "monetarism is dead." Friedman stands virtually alone now among top economists in his belief that it contains any merit.

What happened? Monetarism was tried in Great Britain during the 80s, under Margaret Thatcher, and it proved to be a disaster. For almost seven years, the Bank of England tried its best to make it work. According to monetarist theory, the British economy should have enjoyed low inflation and high stability. But in fact, it went berserk. The economy sank into a deep recession, while lead economic indicators zigged and zagged. Although inflation came down, this was at the price of rising unemployment, which soared from 5.4 to 11.8 percent. Between 1979 and 1984, manufacturing output fell 10 percent, and manufacturing investment fell 30 percent. (5) Eventually production recovered to a respectable 2.8 percent growth, but it became clear that high unemployment was a permanent feature of the British economy. Eventually, the Bank of England came under overwhelming pressure to abandon monetarism, which it did in 1986. The experiment was such a failure that not even conservatives abroad wish to repeat it.

In step with Great Britain, the U.S. Federal Reserve announced in 1979 that it, too, would follow a monetarist policy. Many people blamed the double-digit inflation of the late 70s on Keynesian theory, on too much expansion of the money supply trying to achieve "full employment." Many critics thought that monetarism would restore some responsibility and stability at the Fed. Chairman Paul Volcker apparently agreed, and under the name of monetarism contracted the money supply down to a steady level. This produced a deep recession, but it did cure double-digit inflation.

In 1982, when inflation looked defeated, the Fed suddenly abandoned monetarism and reverted to a Keynesian policy. In that summer it sharply increased the money supply, and a few months later the economy roared to life, in a recovery that would last seven years. Milton Friedman was furious at the betrayal, but he got little sympathy from his fellow economists, who were witnessing a monetarist disaster unfold in Great Britain.

Why did the Fed abandon monetarism? Because it was never really monetarist in the first place. Volcker's strategy to defeat double-digit inflation had been classically Keynesian: reign in the money supply, and accept a deep recession in the process. The "monetarist" label was simply political cover, to mollify the Fed's growing number of critics. Such criticism was not renewed after monetarism failed in Britain, and Keynesian policies produced a seven-year boom in the U.S. The contrasting experience of those two nations was responsible for the demise of Friedman's theory.
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(Monetarism; a theory in economics that stable economic growth can be assured only by control of the rate of increase of the money supply to match the capacity for growth of real productivity
www.m-w.com)
 
Posts: 7900 | Location: Canada | Registered: 06-03-02Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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Here's some news for you:

Stopping the printing presses will not stop the creation of money.

The Federal Reserve now has a policy of loaning electronic money to member banks. The funds are created in an account backed by FR authority, and the funds are used by the banks as if they were real.

This creation of electronic money is built in to monetary policy and regulated, just as printing of money is regulating. Create too much, the dollar is devalued. Create too little, and the dollar is overvalued.

Electronic money is regulated by raising and lowering the Fed's own interest rate, designed to either encourage or discourage the volume of lending banks demand.

Electronic money must be backed up by currency just as currency was once backed up by gold or silver. The reason for this is because, even though they can create an account, the moment they try to use it their customers (us) will demand to withdraw it in paper money, and a certain amount must be available within the economy to satisfy this demand.

As of 1998, 97% of all transactions in the US were still being conducted using cold, hard cash. Only 3% utilized ATM's, credit and debit swipes, smart cards, or EFT.
 
Posts: 239 | Location: Great lakes area | Registered: 11-07-05Reply With QuoteEdit or Delete MessageReport This Post
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