Take a look at this, NNN.

The Surge is working? That will comes as a shock to the Yazidi families that buried 500 of their loved ones, and to the families of the 2 governors assassinated in August, or to the scores killed, or to the US military that gets hit by mortar fire in the Green Zone. But if the administration and the military says it's working, it must be working. After all, they wouldn't lie to us, would they?

Changing the subject slightly, do you think that the administration is finished writing Petraeus' report yet, or do you think they will wait until the last minute?

quote:

The Surge is working?

Yes! It is working, but that does not mean that some deaths won't occur. There is positive proof that the surge is working, and only those that will not see cannot see this.

The spin and strategy of the left is changing rapidly. Most realize that the left does not want to see the success of the surge, but they will have to live with it.

quote:

Originally posted by Scotty:

quote:

The Surge is working?

Yes! It is working, but that does not mean that some deaths won't occur. There is positive proof that the surge is working, and only those that will not see cannot see this.

The spin and strategy of the left is changing rapidly. Most realize that the left does not want to see the success of the surge, but they will have to live with it.

August NIE 2007

Key Judgments

There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now, and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces, working with Iraqi forces,tribal elements, and some Sunni insurgents, have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI)
capabilities, restricted its freedom of movement, and denied it grassroots support in some areas.

We assess, to the extent that Coalition forces continue to conduct robust counterinsurgency operations and mentor and support the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), that Iraq’s security will continue to improve modestly during the next six to 12 months but that levels of insurgent and sectarian violence will remain high and the Iraqi Government will continue to struggle to achieve national-level political reconciliation and improved governance.

Sunni Arab resistance to AQI has expanded in the last six to nine months but has not yet translated into broad Sunni Arab support for the Iraqi Government or widespread willingness to work with the Shia. The Iraqi Government’s Shia leaders fear these groups will ultimately side with armed opponents of the government, but the Iraqi Government has supported some initiatives to incorporate those rejecting AQI into Interior Ministry and Defense Ministry elements.

US Military Deaths in Iraq

2006..............2007
January 61.....January 82
February 53....February 81
March 30.....March 75
April 74.....April 102
May 69.....May 121
June 59.....June 98
July 42.....July 75
August 65.....August (partial)42
September 70
October 100
November 63
December 105

Source: globalsecurity.orgUS

Iraqi Deaths

Jan-06 590 Jan-07 1711
Feb-06 688 Feb-07 2864
Mar-06 901 Mar-07 2762
Apr-06 808 Apr-07 1521
May-06 969 May-07 1782
Jun-06 738 Jun-07 1148
Jul-06 1063 Jul-07 1458
Aug-06 2733 Aug-07 (partial) 1196
Sep-06 3389
Oct-06 1315
Nov-06 1741
Dec-06 1629

Source: http://icasualties.org/oif/IraqiDeaths.aspx


The surge seems to be working, but only if you just look at August's numbers. In the US deaths table, every month this year has higher totals than last year except August. (And if you switch August and July, you get almost exactly the same figures for each month.)

In the Iraqi civilian table, every month this year has higher totals than last year except August.

The only reasonable conclusion from these actual number, not from someone's opinion (whether they are looking at a report or looking around where they are in Iraq), is that the surge really isn't working yet. One month's figures simply aren't enough to judge. August may be the start of a downturn, but it may also be an aberration, like March or July 2006 was for US figures or like August 2006 was for Iraqi figures. (Lest someone say that August was the actual start of the surge, the military places the start a few months earlier.)

OK, let's hear the spin put on the actual numbers. Forget what any politician says, forget what anyone in the military says. What do these numbers mean? Do they show that the surge is working? Is anyone justified in saying that the surge is working? What standards did they use to make that statement?

Scotty, Charles, why can't you tell us what the soldiers you speak to are saying about the surge? Scotty why did you go back to posting links? Is "that guy's mislead" it? You are in a position to share some different and interesting information with us, not the predictable stuff we can find on the web or the TV news. What are the soldiers saying?

For example, I have a couple of students from Kurdistan at the moment. Their paperwork says they are from Iraq (via Germany) and Turkey respectively, but they say they are from Kurdistan. They're not aggressive or insistant about it, and laugh when people say "Where?" - but they are quietly confident that Kurdistan is a country and will be recognised as one.

Can't you guys tell us something that actual soldiers are saying about the surge?

You two try you best to put a negative spin on the "surge", but we have seen the writing on the wall, and so have the Dem's. They are all sitting on the fence, and have made comments to please both sides. This way if it doesn't work, they can go back and say, "see, I told you so".

quote:

The only reasonable conclusion from these actual number, not from someone's opinion (whether they are looking at a report or looking around where they are in Iraq), is that the surge really isn't working yet.

It takes awhile for any type of action to work.
You can't go in and proclaim that the surge is working on the first day. Deaths are going to occur throughout the surge, that's part of any combat action.

quote:

OK, let's hear the spin put on the actual numbers. Forget what any politician says, forget what anyone in the military says

Oh yes! Forget what anybody says about anything, but the left is very quick to point out what the Politicians (Democrats) and retired military personnel are saying, if it is in favor of what they agree with.

BTW...Where do you get your information that the surge isn't working?

quote:

Can't you guys tell us something that actual soldiers are saying about the surge?

They see progress !
The key word is progress.

Taciturn bunch, aren't they?

Can't you expand a little? Take the little anecdote about the students from Kurdistan as a model.

"This one guy I know says/is/was..."

No, Scotty, I just wanted to hear what you and others had to say about the numbers. Charles, as usual when faced with an unpleasant but undeniable truth, ignores them. You say they can't mean anything yet, but somehow think the surge is working. Everyone who reads this forum regularly knows that, had the numbers indicated that the surge was in fact working, you would have already referenced them. But they don't, do they? Even though the surge, according to the military, has been in place for a few months rather than the talk of "the first day" you mention, August is the only month that gives potential evidence that the surge may be working. At least I am objective enough to admit to the possibility of it actually working. You can't even say that it might not be, despite the facts and figures written out for you. I hope you are right and I am wrong. I hope the surge works so well that we can bring the military home next year. Unlike you, I am not afraid of being wrong.

quote:

You say they can't mean anything yet, but somehow think the surge is working. Everyone who reads this forum regularly knows that, had the numbers indicated that the surge was in fact working, you would have already referenced them

Who has to say that the surge is working for you to believe that it is? I see articles every day now that more and more people that are against the war, agree that progress is being made, and the surge is working.
What does that tell me? Possibly that the surge is working.

Scotty, the way you dance around saying anything of substance, you should consider going on Dancing with the Stars. For a few years now, we hear you talk about all the progress we are making in Iraq, yet conditions there are worse than they were under Saddam. When finding those numbers (which, by the way, were unknown to me when I went looking. I honestly didn't know what they would indicate.), I saw someone who had worked out the death rate for civilians under Saddam and under US occupation. Not only did they have more freedom, more electricity, and cleaner water under Saddam, but fewer civilians died, and that was with a larger population. (Among others, over 50,000 professionals have left Iraq since we invaded. That makes for some long waits for doctors, doesn't it?)

"I see articles every day now that more and more people that are against the war..."

Uh, Scotty, you better check those articles again, because it sounds like you did another one of those things you are known for, not reading all the article. I think you saw articles about more and more people in the US are against the war.

quote:

Can't you expand a little? Take the little anecdote about the students from Kurdistan as a model.

I have many guys here from the US, via Parris Island and Iraq respectively, but they say that they ar they are from the US.
They are aggressive and insistant about it, and laugh when people say that we should run away from Iraq.

They are quietly confident that Iraq is a country and will be recognised as one.

They see progress !
The key word is progress.


Hows that?

What's the problem? Why the sarcasm? Is there some reason you don't want to tell us what soldiers are saying about the surge?

Scotty

quote:
Can't you expand a little? Take the little anecdote about the students from Kurdistan as a model.



I have many guys here from the US, via Parris Island and Iraq respectively, but they say that they ar they are from the US.
They are aggressive and insistant about it, and laugh when people say that we should run away from Iraq.

They are quietly confident that Iraq is a country and will be recognised as one.

They see progress !
The key word is progress.


Hows that?
******************************
Scotty, Iraq is a country and has been recognized as one since 1932. Do you and your friends have any other earth-shaking news for us? Is anyone ever going to break Ruth's 60 homers in a season? Will the Amazing Mets ever win a pennant? Will there ever be a Polish Pope? (OK, OK, I'm kidding with that Polish Pope thing.)

The funny thing about what you said is that Iraq is coming apart now. Look for Kurdistan on your maps in the next few years. (Or, maybe you should go to a library and use theirs. Yours seem to be a bit old. You know that the British gave up on India, don't you?)

quote:

Scotty, the way you dance around saying anything of substance, you should consider going on Dancing with the Stars. For a few years now, we hear you talk about all the progress we are making in Iraq, yet conditions there are worse than they were under Saddam

UM, I think that we are talking about the surge. Do you realize that this is something that is a recent event? Read up on things DG.
People are seeing progress now, whether you want to admit it or not, but you won't be able
to hide from it soon. It will be evident even
to the blind who are unwilling to see.

I know when we are making headway and getting to you, because you want to start criticizing any reports and article that we refer to, and the insults start coming. Looks like you are getting flabbergasted there DG.
I will try to remain a man and I won't insult you.
Is it so hard to accept that we may be making progress?

quote:

What's the problem? Why the sarcasm? Is there some reason you don't want to tell us what soldiers are saying about the surge?

READ MY LIPS........ THEY SEE PROGRESS, PROGRESS, PROGRESS.

What part of progress is it that you don't understand?