Is Rudy Giulani likely to run for the nomination? Would he defeat John McCain?

McCain now has no chance, by the way: the Conservative Party here has been claiming a p.r. triumph in getting him to attend their next shindig. Now, that is the kiss of death for him ! They are certain to back the loser. They seem to think that getting him to speak to them at all is a sign that they are favoured by Republican advisers as likely to win the next election.Very ill-advised, one might say. (The only one sure thing in British, indeed European,politics is that nobody wants to admit ever having met or known President G. W. Bush ,a man who is in some danger of being stalinistically removed from all photographs in anyone's portfolio )

If he does try, look for other Republicans to "just happen to mention" that, in the days after 9/11, Guiliani, at the end of his mayoral term, floated the idea that he should stay on despite the law, since New York needed him so much. He was dragged out of office, kicking and screaming, holding on to everything possible. If he gets the nomination, the Dems will have a field day with that, and a few other things.
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I don't know who will get the nomination, but look for a female on the ticket, especially if the Dems nominate someone who looks like a winner or the country is really down on Repubs at that time. Rice, Elizabeth Dole, and Christie Whitman come to mind.

The Atlantic Monthly concludes that Giuliani couldn't be President because he can't (yet) speak "Evangelese". He's also pro-choice and pro-gay rights.

The article says that only about 13% of US voters are hard-core 'Christian religious right'. Other Republicans might reluctantly accept his views on homosexuality and abortion, it suggests, but still want to hear about a broadly faith-based character background, like GW's "I was a feckless drunkard saved by Billy Graham" schtick.

There was radio talk a few months ago that John McCain was a possibility...provided he agreed to take on Jeb Bush as his running mate.