What if the allies hadn't won World War I? Or what if Russia had never mobilized in the first place, and the war had remained just a regional one between Austria and Serbia? Would the world be much different today?

What do you think?

Well, Germany's defeat in WWI led in many ways to the rise of Hitler and thus to WWII...

Technology - particularly of flight - might not have developed as fast without WWI.

WWI is also often credited with ending the Victorian social structures of the UK, and of helping create the conditions for Lenin's revolution in Russia.

I was thinking the same thing. Had Russia never mobilized its troops, World War I might not have happened, and both World War II and the Cold War probably would have been avoided, since the Revolution wouldn't have happened. Also, if not for World War I, the British probably would never have promised any land to the Jews and the Palestinians, and the Arab/Israeli conflict might not exist. Jeez, basically every modern problem seems to go back to World War I, doesn't it? If the Russians had just stayed out of the conflict.

Also, I began thinking... had Germany won World War I, there might not have been a World War II, either. And although the Russian Revolution still would have happened had the outcome of the war been different, perhaps Germany would have taken the reigns in any eventual Cold War with the Soviets. Today's problems would be on Germany's shoulders, not the US's. Sounds good to me!

Now where's a good time machine? Anyone? Anyone?

Germany would have started a war somewhere. Kaiser Wilhelm needed one to prove his masculinity. With no WWI, he would have still been in power in Germany, as would (possibly), his cousin, Tsar Ncholas of Russia. The Hapsburgs, still in power in the Austro-Hungarian Empire, would have faced revolutions from one or more of the Slavic peoples under their thumb. (In 1934, Serbian King Alexander I of Yugoslavia was assassinated in Marseilles, France, by a Macedonian revolutionary. Trust me, those people do not like any government except their own, and not always their own.) Austria would have to respond, and, Russia, who saw themselves as "Protector to the Slavs" and the "Third Rome", would have come to their fellow Slav's rescue, especially if the revolutionaires were Eastern Orthodox. Germany, then, would come to the aid of what they saw as "their" long-lost land (Austria), hoping to annex as much of Austria as possible somehow. Germany would also try to get more of Poland from Russia (and Austria) at the same time. Wilhelm, never one to doubt the superiority of the Prussian Army, would also try to expand into France by extending the borders of Alsace-Lorraine. Britain, joining France to stop German expansion, and seeing Germany over-extended, would try to expand its empire in Africa by attacking Germany's colonies there, and in the German islands in the South Pacific. Naturally, Australia and New Zealand join in with Britain. Lawrence still does his bit in Arabia, and the Ottoman Empire crumbles. Italy sees an opportunity to get more land from Austria, and joins with France, Russia, and Britain.

President James M. Cox of the United States sends aid to England, which causes Germany to attack ships leaving US ports. (The US wanted to gain more colonies in the South Pacific, and was hoping that Germany would attack somewhere.) The Irish overthrow the over-extended British in Ireland, and declare the entire island to be Eire. Britain, bogged down on mainland Europe, busy in both North and South Africa, and still with ships and troops in the South Pacific is powerless to stop the Irish.

The war finally ends, not with any real victory, but with all participants (except the US) simply worn out, having lost more men than thought possible, with most countries ruined financially, and with most lands returned to their previous owners, with the exceptions of some South Pacific islands that the US grabbed while no one was watching. The borders of Europe have changed somewhat, with Austria and Russia, however, losing a great deal. Another Slav revolution starts in the Kingdom of the Serbs, Slovenes, and Croats. Greece makes a land grab nothward, but is repelled by both side of the Revolution. No other countries get involved, being too worn down from the past 5 years of warfare. With the economies of Germany, Russia, France, Great Britain, and Austria in a shambles, a depression starts, first in Russia and Germany, and it spreads world wide. Socialists seize the opportunity to promote workers' governments wherever possible, and succeed in a few countries.

So, in my opinion, had not WWI happened, it would have happened. That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

I see your point, DG. Europe was just waiting for a war to happen, and if it hadn't started then, it would've started later.

So what do you think about the other idea? What if the Germans had won?

With Kaiser Wilhelm II in charge, they couldn't. Wilhelm had a lot of problems that would preclude any sensible fighting of a war. Wilhelm was born with a withered left arm (Check a few photos of him, and you will see how he hid it.), and so felt is necessary to be "more of a man" than a normal man. In Prussia, of course, this had only one meaning - military. The man even used a saddle instead of a desk chair. Like many leaders who feel inadequate, he needed a war. Unlike some of those leaders, he had no idea of the capabilities of his troops, and thus, didn't choose a weak opponent.* In actuality, up to the end, Wilhelm still thought that the superior Prussian army would win.

*However, once he realized that his war was about to involve more than just smaller, weaker countries, he responded to his cousin, Tsar Nicholas' entreaties, in a half-hearted effort of an effort to stop th mobilizations.

Obviously, we'll never know if he was capable of winning a war, but I'm not so sure that he wasn't. He gave the allies a good run for their money for a few years there. I think that if the Germans hadn't been set on blowing up American ships and trying to get Mexico to go to war with the US, the American troops wouldn't have gotten involved, and Germany might have eeked out a victory.

That was more or less my point. The man didn't know his limitations.

A man's got to know his limitations. - Insp. Harry Callahan

Okay, so let's say you're right. So now, I'm in my time machine. I've decided to go back to say, 1917, a few months before the Zimmerman telegram was sent out of Germany. I'm going to assassinate the Kaiser, okay?

So now, the Kaiser's out but Germany's still at war. They don't send the telegram and they don't start unlimited submarine warfare and the US never comes over. Germany eeks out a victory.

World War II never happens? 6 million Jews aren't killed? Palestine isn't flooded with Jewish refugees? The Palestinian/Israeli conflict is avoided? The Atom bomb is delayed a while and maybe never used - at least not by us? The US doesn't become a superpower? The US doesn't become a central actor in the Cold War? No war in Vietnam? I'm born in the US but we're no great power with too many mistakes on our conscience, just one more nice little country that gets to tsk tsk tsk at some OTHER country that grew too powerful for its own good? (Although, strangely, had there been no cold war for the US, I probably wouldn't have been born there... hmm... Oh, wait, I suppose no one cares how this story affects my life, personally. Sorry about that. Ahem. )

That is certainly one possibility. However, I think that Germany would have had its hands full IF it tried to occupy the conquered lands. I am certain that several of the Slavic groups would have kept up their fight against foreign rule. I also think that some of the other nationalities would have done the same. Sooner or later, one of them succeeds. While that one is fighting, another, probably on the other side of the "new Germany" would revolt. Eventually, it starts again, but this time, Germany may have the bomb. England, and the US (New York City) are the likely targets. The US capital is moved to St. Louis, Missouri. Chicago gets Wall Street's firms. There is possibly another Civil War in the US between the German-Americans and the Pro-British. If Canada went to the Germans, the Pro-British lose. The Confederate States might re-form, and Mexico certainly goes after Texas and California. (In fact, the Mexicans may support the Germans, had they won in Europe, in their attempt to conquer the US.)

All of the above could fit in with what you say about Germany without Wilhelm. Germany has never been shy about expansion.

The more I think about it, the more I see Germany nuking Moscow, too, possibly first. Russia has only been taken once, and that was from the East, by superior horseman. Germany either would have to nuke Moscow or leave Russia alone completely. If they leave Russia alone (which would be a mistake), Russia develops to the East, and Japan suffers. Russia becomes the Pacific power, and the stage is set for a German-Russian war. At this point, Russia and Germany are the Superpowers. However, if Germany attacks Russia, Germany runs the risk of defeat there, and surely weakens its power in other holdings. Russia presents the major opponent for Germany either way. A strong Eastern Russia could mean many things for the US, some good, some not. I think that Germany and Russia would fight small wars in other countries, similar to what the US and Russia went through in reality. If Russia can stay strong, she may prevent China from becoming a Superpower. If that happens, Japan would be just a quaint place to visit, if they even allowed foreigners in.
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This is really interesting. Great question.

Oh! I forgot one other thing. Regardless of what Germany does about Russia, some southern Slavic people continue a Resistance that the Germans cannot stamp out. (This may help Russia a great deal.) Other Slavs with join with the Serbs to rid the area of Germans, and, as soon as the Germans leave, they will attack each other, and live happily ever after, fighting their little wars with each other. Every other country leaves them alone, realizing that it just isn't worth it.