And the true answer? Iona and Peter Opie devoted their whole lives to the study of nursery rhymes and the lore and language of children. Their lasting work is now the 'Oxford Dictionary of Nursery Rhymes'. Here's a summary of their commentary on " Hush-a-bye, baby.." (as it was first recorded)when the words were:
"Hush-a-bye baby,on the tree top,
When the wind blows the cradle will rock;
When the bough breaks the cradle will fall
Down will come baby, cradle and all".
The age of both rhyme and melody is uncertain. The tune is a variant of 'Lilliburlero'. The words are first found in 'Mother Goose's Melody' (c. 1765) with the footnote " This may serve as a Warning to the Proud and Ambitious, who climb so high that they generally fall at last ". Imaginations have been stretched to give the rhyme significance. So one Gerald Massey in 'Ancient Egypt' suggested that the babe was the child Horus. Joseph Ritson states that the opening words are 'Bee baw babby lou'and are a corruption of the French nurse's warning that there is a wolf down there (" He bas! Le loup!") . The authorship has been attributed to a Pilgrim youth from the Mayflower who saw how 'Red Indians' hung their birch-bark cradle on the branch of a tree or to be "the first poem produced on American soil" (Book Lover magazine, 1904) and Metro Goldwyn Mayer in 1944 saw it as as a lampoon on the British royal line in James II's time.
Another version of the words appears in 'Gammer Gurton's Garland' (1784): " When the wind ceases the cradle will fall"
Finally in 'The Scots Musical Museum'(1797) there is a nursery song 'O can you sew cushions?'. In 'The Scottish Minstrel' (1823) a writer R.A. Smith gives this as the second stanza to that song: " I biggit the cradle on the tree top / And the wind it did blow, and the cradle did rock/ And hee and baw, birdie.." Another authority found a similar second verse to it in 1839. "This seems to be another hint that long ago, in Britain, as in other countries", write the Opies, " cradles were rocked by wind power".
Note that elements of what others have posted in this thread appear in the Opies' learned account

For myself, I remember this being used as an infant amusement (We must be a sadistic lot in East Anglia). Happily no tiny baby was used.The nurse or mother cradles the child in her arms and rocks it, as a baby, as she sings the rhyme.She slows the words as she reaches 'the cradle ...' and promptly drops the infant at 'down will..', catching it again before it hits the floor. This should produce delighted giggling from the child.....(or an action in negligence

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