By the end of 2004, a total of 7,549 same-sex couples had entered civil unions in Vermont, the first state to offer gay couples nearly all the rights and privileges of marriage. There have been 78 dissolutions.
That looks like roughly 10% failure rate, in just a little over 5 years. In the first year for Vermont figures that came up, 2002, Vermont had 6001 marriages and 2653 divorces. That gives a 44% failure rate. I am sure that the failure rate would be lower if only the marriages in the same five years were counted for both marriages and divorces, but I doubt if it is significanlty better than the failure rate of 10% experienced by the civil unions.
I don't know what the point of your post is, but it seems that all it proves is that sometimes, people who love each other and commit to each other change their mind. Like Forrest says, "It happens."
Posts: 17444 | Location: Lincoln Place, Granite City, IL, USA | Registered: 06-03-02
In recent years, some have suggested that the “real” divorce rate is nothing near 50% but that it is more like 15%--meaning, 15% of couples who marry will divorce. I do not well understand where the 15% number comes from, but the arguments in it’s favor are usually supported by a serious misunderstanding of where the 40-50% numbers come from. The assumption has been (by those who have not studied it carefully) is that the 50% number came from someone noticing that, in the U.S., we have about 2.4 million marriages a year and 1.2 million divorces a year. Hence, 50% of married couples divorce. Having set forth this explanation, people arguing for the lower percent as being the real divorce rate, go forth with their case.
Actually, it was an attack of TBD. (Temporary Brain Death) I apologize for the error. At least no one can accuse me of misstating the figures to make my case appear stronger.
Posts: 17444 | Location: Lincoln Place, Granite City, IL, USA | Registered: 06-03-02
I agree that the figure usually given as a divorce rate, with the implication that 50% of marriages fail, is wrong. The way to get an accurate divorce rate is to compare the number of divorces in a year with the number of couples who were married during that year, which includes couples who were married years before, in other words, all martried couples in teh area of the study. An alternative would be to compare, over a lifetime, the number of people married in any given year, and the number of divorces in that group. But to compare the number of divorces in a year with the only number of marriages performed that year gives only a marriage ceremony/divorce ratio for any one year. Realistically, those married in any one year are highly unlikely to divorce that same year, so comparing marriages and divorces from one year is using two almost exclusively separate groups.
Posts: 17444 | Location: Lincoln Place, Granite City, IL, USA | Registered: 06-03-02
